Demand-Signal Discovery (Find Your First Customers)

Note

Generated from core/skills/prospecting/references/demand-signals.md — edit that file, not this page.

Demand-Signal Discovery (Find Your First Customers)

The other three branches build a list from who fits (firmographics, technographics, proximity). This branch builds a list from who is already showing the pain — the early-stage motion where you have a product and a hunch but no customer base yet, and you need your first ten real conversations. You are not filtering a database; you are mining recent public discourse for people describing the exact problem you solve, then linking every prospect to the evidence.

Use this branch when the user is pre-product-market-fit, launching something new, or looking for design partners, beta users, or first customers rather than a scaled outbound list. It reuses the shared five phases and every compliance guardrail in SKILL.md; what changes is where you look, how you score, and what you ship.

Pattern credit: the framework here is re-expressed from the open-source first-customer-finder Codex skill (Kappaemme, MIT), extended with our live-recency tooling.

What makes this branch different

	List-building branches (SaaS / B2B / SMB)	Demand-signal discovery
Starts from	A firmographic ICP	A described problem
Sources	Contact databases (Apollo, ZoomInfo, Clay)	Public discourse (forums, reviews, issues, posts)
Contact step	Enrich + verify email deliverability	None — reach them where they already posted
Wins on	Coverage at scale	10 strong evidence-backed matches over a long list
Output	A scored lead sheet	An evidence report + manual outreach plan

A prospect here without a cited pain, need, or timing signal is a speculative fit — it does not belong in the primary shortlist. Evidence is the entry ticket.

Step 1 — Product brief (before any searching)

Define, specifically enough to reject weak matches:

• product and the promised outcome
• primary user and the economic buyer (often different)
• the urgent job to be done
• the current alternative or workaround being replaced
• the likely adoption trigger (what makes now the moment)
• geography / language constraint
• clear disqualifiers

Don’t start broad collection until the brief is sharp. Pull from .agents/product-marketing.md if it exists.

Step 2 — Mine the five signal buckets

Search several angles, not one query repeated. Adapt wording to how the audience actually talks (mine their vocabulary from organic content first — see the ad-creative hook-system’s organic-language note for the same idea).

1. Explicit demand — “looking for,” “recommend a tool for,” “alternative to [X],” “does anything exist that,” “how do you all handle.”
2. Pain — “takes hours,” “so manual,” “hate that,” “keeps breaking,” “biggest frustration with,” “why is there no.”
3. Workaround — spreadsheets, copy-paste, a VA, a Zapier chain, a script, a template, any repeated manual step that your product would replace.
4. Switching — cancellation, migration, “moving off [competitor],” a missing feature, a pricing complaint, competitor frustration.
5. Timing — a public launch, a new hire for the relevant function, expansion, a new workflow or regulation, an integration announcement — a current event that makes the product relevant now.

Use our live-recency edge. A generic skill relies on whatever a web search surfaces; you have better:

• last30days — Reddit, Hacker News, X, YouTube, and web signals from the last 30 days. This is the single highest-value tool for this branch: recency is the timing signal.
• social-fetch — pull the full content of a specific post/thread you find, normalized.
• scraping / Firecrawl / Browserbase — read the original public page (a forum thread, a GitHub issue, a review), never qualify from a search snippet alone.
• deep-research — for a multi-source sweep with adversarial verification when the wedge is broad.
• competitor-profiling / customer-research — competitor switching signals and review-mining for the pain language.

Step 3 — Source mix (public only)

Forums and public community threads · public social posts and replies · product and app-marketplace reviews · GitHub issues and feature requests · public company pages, job posts, changelogs, launch announcements · “looking for a tool” posts and directories.

Avoid private groups, gated communities, data brokers, leaked datasets, and any source whose terms prohibit access — the same compliance guardrails as every other branch (see SKILL.md), including the no-sensitive-traits rule.

Business/professional context only. Qualify and reach out only where someone is posting in a professional or business capacity about a work problem (a founder in an indie-hackers thread, a developer in a GitHub issue, an ops lead in a subreddit for their role). Exclude personal-distress contexts entirely — health, financial hardship, addiction, grief, or any consumer support forum where people are venting personal problems, even if your product is tangentially relevant. When the motion is genuinely consumer (B2C), a public pain post is not on its own a lawful basis for cold outreach — reach people through the channel’s own norms (reply publicly where replying is expected) and never DM a stranger off a personal post.

Quote minimally, paraphrase by default, and link every material pain or timing signal.

Step 4 — Score on demand-fit (not ICP-fit)

The list-building branches score Hot/Warm/Cold on ICP fit. This branch scores 0–100 on demand fit — how strongly the evidence says this specific prospect wants this specific thing now. Score each dimension 0–5:

Dimension	Weight	What it measures
Pain strength	25%	Directness, severity, repetition, and cost of the stated problem
Product fit	25%	How directly your product solves the evidenced job
Timing	20%	Freshness + a current trigger present
Public reachability	15%	A natural, relevant public/professional contact path exists
Evidence quality	15%	Specificity, source reliability, confidence the signal is really theirs

score = pain/5*25 + fit/5*25 + timing/5*20 + reachability/5*15 + evidence/5*15

Band	Meaning
80–100	Strong first-customer candidate
65–79	Promising — validate fast
50–64	Plausible but missing a material signal
Below 50	Do not include in the primary shortlist

An old explicit request can still count — but lower the timing score and label the date. A company that merely matches the industry with no evidenced trigger is not a qualified prospect here.

Prospect stages

• High intent — publicly requesting a solution or actively switching
• Problem aware — clearly describing the pain or an expensive workaround
• Trigger present — a current business event makes the product relevant
• Potential fit — ICP match, incomplete evidence → keep outside the primary shortlist

Evidence ledger (per qualified prospect)

Displayed name (company/project/public professional) · source title + URL · visible publication date or “date unavailable” · source type · the concise pain/timing signal · observed evidence vs. inference (label which) · score breakdown · freshness warning when the signal is stale.

Step 5 — Draft outreach, never send it

Recommend the most natural channel already associated with the source, and only where a reply is a normal part of that channel (reply in the public thread, respond via a public professional profile). Don’t turn a public post into a private DM the poster didn’t invite, and never contact someone off a personal-distress post. Draft one opener, under ~90 words, in this shape:

1. mention the public context naturally
2. connect it to the exact problem
3. explain the product in one sentence
4. ask one low-friction question

Never claim familiarity you don’t have, never fabricate personal details, and never auto-send: no messages, connects, follows, comments, form submissions, or CRM records unless the user separately authorizes that action. This is the manual/gated posture from the marketing-loops guardrails.

Step 6 — Ship the evidence report

Lead with the most actionable evidence, in this order:

1. Verdict — does the product have reachable early-customer signal, or not yet? (An honest “not yet, here’s why” is a valid answer.)
2. ICP — buyer, job, trigger, disqualifiers.
3. Top prospect — the single strongest evidence-backed candidate and why now.
4. Prospect shortlist — per prospect: source, pain signal, demand-fit score, stage, why-now, channel, opener.
5. Repeated patterns — pains and triggers recurring across prospects (these are your positioning and messaging gold).
6. Seven-day manual outreach plan — a low-volume validation sequence (e.g., contact the top 3 with one source-based question; share a mockup only after they confirm the pain; target three conversations and one design-partner commitment).
7. Limits — what evidence is missing and what must be confirmed through real conversations.

For a shareable standalone HTML version of this report, the JSON→HTML generator pattern in ad-creative’s creative-review-page.md is the model (escape every value; keep it self-contained).

The honesty rules (non-negotiable)

• Every primary prospect links to at least one real public signal. No signal, no shortlist.
• Label the output “potential customer based on public signals” — never “interested,” “will buy,” or “has consented.”
• Prefer ten strong matches over a long generic list. Make uncertainty and stale evidence visible.
• Personalize from the cited source, not from invented assumptions.
• Treat the shortlist as a research hypothesis to validate through conversations, not a customer database.